Pats' Notebook: The Soaring Falcons

Less than a year ago, the Patriots made the comeback of all comeback, famously changing the narrative of the game as they defeated the Atlanta Falcons after trailing 28-3 in the fourth quarter. Only once every four seasons do the AFC East and NFC South square off in the regular season. This is one of those years, as the Falcons (3-2) travel to Gillette stadium as they seek revenge against the team that defeated them in America's most watched event.

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In the 2016 season, the Patriots were the “it team.” The team with a strong passing and running game that also allowed the fewest points defensively. Despite injuries, the team was able to claim the number one seed and remain the biggest threat to a Super Bowl championship throughout the season.
New England carried that pedigree into this season, being labeled as the top team once again. Through the first seven weeks, they have failed to meet any of the defensive standards they were expected to reach.

Meanwhile Atlanta is playing well but also not at the elite level expected of them. Matt Ryan’s 65.9 completion percentage ranks as his lowest rate since 2011. His only game with over 300 yards so far this season came in week one against a Chicago Bears team that every internet titan needs to troll.

The skill players to go along with Matty Ice are amongst the best in the game. Regarded as a top 5 running back, Devonta Freeman has averaged a touchdown per game to this point, following up a strong 2016 season. His backup, Tevin Coleman, is an elite pass catcher, and would be the starter on a lot of NFL teams. Julio Jones ranks as one of the best receivers the league has to offer.

On the opposite side of the football, Atlanta has been strong. Through their five games, they have only allowed two rushing touchdowns. While they do rank in the middle of the pack in yards per attempt, they're strong at the goal line. While they have played one less game, the Falcons have allowed only half of the passing touchdowns the Pats have, with the Patriots allowing 14 and the Falcons 7.

Atlanta is coming off of a loss to the Dolphins, where they blew a 17-0 lead. The Patriots won on the road, overcoming a two touchdown deficit where the defense showed signs of life. But we know how the team has played at home.

Tyler’s tickets to victory for Atlanta:

• Expose the secondary: If there was one receiver in the NFL that could beat the secondary the Patriots were projected to have entering the season, it would be Julio Jones. The defense looked much improved in the second half last week, however it was against the Jets. The biggest issue previously had been Stephon Gilmore’s lack of communication, and they were able to overcome that… because concussion issues kept him off the field. Gilmore is expected to play this Sunday night, and until he proves that he's worth what he's being paid, teams will target him. Julio Jones should be able to do what every other receiver has done against them this season.
• Finish out the game: The Falcons have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They played better than Miami this past week, however similar to the Super Bowl, they couldn't play to the same elite defensive level as the game closed. For the Falcons to win, they need to stay on their toes all game, and not give Captain Comeback a chance to make them pay for getting lazy.

Tyler's tickets to victory for New England:

• Out-offense the Falcons: At this point, the secondary needs to prove its worth before they can be seen as a legitimate factor. Facing off against the high-flying Falcons, the Patriots need to do what they do best even better… score. They'll need to put up a lot of points to be in this game. Because the Falcons won't be stopped if the defense didn't make extremely significant improvements.
• Malcolm Brown needs to pick up the slack: The story of the defense has been the inability to stop the pass. The ground stoppers have been far from ideal as well. They rank in the bottom 12 in yardage allowed, touchdowns allowed, and yards per carry. But there is a bright side. They haven't allowed rushing touchdowns in every game. Stopping the passing attack will be tough. Stopping the run will be tough. But with Freeman’s ability at the goal line, Brown's big body could be the difference maker.

I do not have a lot of confidence in the Patriot’s defense at this point in the season. Until the unit can prove me wrong, it's difficult to trust that they've improved. The Falcons are playing much better all-around football right now, and that trend will probably continue on Sunday.

My prediction: Falcons 37-Patriots 31

Tyler's record: 4-2

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