The Decline of a Star

By Scoop Fox

This is something that no New England fan wants to hear. It’s the day that Patriots Nation feared it would come but continue to believe it hasn’t. After years of consistently putting up big time passing stats, in the year 2013 we are now seeing the beginning stages of QB Tom Brady’s decline.

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I know for a fact that many Brady supporters will be quick to either deny or defend against such a notation that their ‘Golden Boy’ is losing his shine. Excuses such as ‘He doesn’t have Gronk, Hernandez, or Welker to throw to’ or ‘He’s throwing to rookies who can’t catch’ will come by the wayside. Trust me, Brady has been in the same situation back in 2006 with ‘no receivers’ to throw to (anybody remember the great WR duo of Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel?). Still Brady put up adequate numbers (319-for-516 (61.8% completion) with 3,529 yards and 24 TDs) and finished the year with a completion percentage of 61.8%.

Let’s look at the stat line up to this point.

In 7 games, Tom Brady is 158-for-285 attempts (55.4% completion) for 1,708 yards with 8TDs and 5 INTS for a QB rating of 75.4. However his 55.4% completion and 75.4 QB rating ranks him at 27th and 25th, respectfully, among starting QBs. Right now Tom Brady is on pace to finish the season of 361-of-651 for 3,904 with a career low completion percentage of under 55% and will tie a career low of 18 TDs thrown.

Now let’s look at his performance in the first couple of months of the season. In September, Brady was 93-for-158 (58.86 % completion) for 1,014 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INT for a QB Rating of 87.4 to go with a 4-0 record. In October, Brady is 65 for 127 (a 51.18% completion) 694 with only 1 TD and 3 INTs with a QB Rating of 60.3 and a 1-2 record. To add insult to injury, New York Jets rookie QB Geno Smith is putting up better numbers than Tom Brady in the month of October (52-for-87 with 59.77% completion, 633 yards, 4 TDs and 3 INTS QB Rating 83.2 and 2-1 record).

We all know a quarterback is as good as the strength of his arm. Upon inspection, you can see that a majority of Tom Brady’s passes and passing yards are now coming off the short 5-7 yard drop-off pass. When he tries to throw the long ball this season, Brady is 18-for-57 (31.58% completion) for 429 and only 2 TD.  If that doesn’t convince you that his arm strength is declining, let’s look at the same scenario in the same span of time (7 weeks) for the past two seasons. In 2011, Brady was 25-for-49 (51.02% completion) with 754 yards and 3TDs. In 2012, Brady was 17-for-51 for (33.33% completion) with 473 yards and 5 TDs when throwing the long ball.

If the stats still don’t convince you that Tom Brady is on a decline, let’s try the eye test. A few years ago, Brady’s release of the ball was crisper, having more of a spiral. Also he was able to hit his receivers with almost pinpoint accuracy 10+ yards down the field. Now he seems to be holding onto the ball more, his release is becoming awkward, and the ball isn’t traveling as far, falling short many of times or end up behind his receiver when he tries to throw a pass longer than 10+ yards.

Bottom line is that Brady’s best years are now behind him. He’s falling back down to earth and it’s normal. All the greats went through the same process. Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Montana, Dan Fouts just to name a few. But the fact of the matter is that Brady is 36 and after playing at a high level for so long, his body is starting to breaking down from the physical wear and tear. #12 can elude defenders on the gridiron but he can’t elude Father Time.