Fox's Week 5 Pick'ems: Guess Who's Back

*insert Godzilla roar*

​GOOD MORNING FOOTBALL! HOW ARE YOU TODAY? GOOD MORNING FOOTBALL! HERE’S WHAT I HAVE TO SAY! I HOPE THAT WEEK 5 WILL NEVER END…because football is my only friend….
 
-Depressed Charley Casserly

Ryan L. Fox

Sheesh, you think you’re depressed Charley Casserly? For two weeks in a row, yours truly has been floundering with picks and the people have let me know about it. But with Week 6 coming up, there are games that to be looked at and picks to be made. In the words of Captain Giggles, I must do my job.

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LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-3
 
At this rate, I’m just gonna rename this ‘Cleveland Browns Pick’ems’ just so it’ll fit the narrative of the unlucky picks I’ve been making.
 
OVERALL RECORD: 5-7
 
Crap, the season is slipping away! I gotta salvage this otherwise my bookie will break my legs for giving him the wrong picks yet again for the second week in a row (just kidding folks, I have no legs).
 
Honorable Mention
 
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday @ 1:00 p.m.
 
The only good news for the Jets is that there really is no shutdown, elite corner that’s on the Steelers like there were in Week 3 (Marcus Peters of the Chiefs) and Week 4 (Richard Sherman of the Seahawks). So Ryan Fitzpatrick interception total will probably be no greater than 2.
 
Other than that, a healthy Ben Roethesberger, a juiced up Antonio Brown, and a revamped La’Von Bell are going to cause the Jets to have fits.
 
Pick: Steelers
 
Da Picks
 
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday @ 1:00 p.m. ET
 
Guess who’s back…back again?
 
Brady’s back tell a….yeah yeah yeah, we all get it.
 
For those who have not been paying attention to NFL news, Patriots QB Tom Brady’s back from his 4-game suspension (If you weren’t beaten over the head by Pats fans and the propaganda machine known as the Patriots media by this announcement). But the fact of the matter is that there is going to be some rust on Brady (i.e. getting up to game speed where there’s live tacklers). Not to mention that the status of TE Rob Gronkowski is still up in the air with that hamstring, plus you have reports of WR Julian Edelman feeling comfort in his foot (the one that he broke last year and had like two surgeries on it).
 
But this is a game the Patriots should win. I hate to be the bearer of bad news to Pats fans (actually I love doing that though) but no…no LEGIT single game passing records will be broken by Tom Brady and the point differential will probably be between 10-17 (I’m feeling 38-24) in favor of the Patriots. Sorry folks, this is real football. Not Madden.
 
Pick: Pats
 
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos
Sunday @ 4:25 p.m. ET
 
I’ve been referred to as the ‘Stat Guy’ on Psycho Sports and Parente and Pal so I’m gonna lay a few stats down for you.
 
Now the Denver passing defense is something not to be taken lightly. Currently they are ranked 2nd overall in passing defense, allowing just an average of 169.5 yards per game. Since Week 1 when they gave up 91 yards receiving to Panthers receiver Kelvin Benjamin, no wide receiver has had more than 80 yards receiving against them. Here’s an even more interesting statistic: QBs have a 61.3 rating when playing the Broncos. This is in part to the DB duo of Chris Harris Jr. and Aquib Talib as well as a Broncos pass rush led by the likes of OLB Von Miller.
 
We all know that Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw 28-of-37 for 503 yards and 3 TDs in a 48-33 victory over the Carolina Panthers and Julio Jones accounted for 300 of those yards alone. But if you break it down even further, Matt Ryan went 12-for-15 for 300 yards and 1TD when he threw two Julio. So about 43% of his completions, 41 % of his targets, and 60% of his yards went to one target alone. By the way, his QB rating was approximately 141.0. Outside of Jones, Matt Ryan went 16-for-22 and 203 yards with 2TDs to 9 other Falcon receivers for a QB rating of 131.4.
 
So if the Broncos blanket Julio Jones, they would essentially limit Matt Ryan’s options to the likes of Mohamed Sanu and Davonte Freeman, which can also be blanketed.  You’re better off just leaving any Falcons players on your bench in this match up.
 
Pick: Broncos
 
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday @ 8:30 p.m. ET
 
All this week, Giants star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. have been on the receiving end of people criticizing him for his recent ‘temper flares’ during games. Everybody from guys at the water coolers to non-Marconi Award winners (Mike Franseltzer) to idiots who think the Giants should trade OBJ for an oft-inured, high maintenance tight end. Fact of the matter is that OBJ is going to be a Giant and he’s going to make a big impact this Sunday night.
 
The Packers’ run defense is very stout due to the performance of guys like LBs Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, DE Mike Daniels, and S Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, holding teams to an average of 42.7 yard per game. Against the pass….that’s a different story. The Packers are the 4th worst defense against the pass, giving up 307.3 yards per game while quarterbacks have a QB rating of 105.3 when playing against them.
 
Ironically enough, the Giants are 4th overall in passing offense with 288.5 yards per game thrown. Plus they have given up the third fewest sacks in 4 games (6 sacks, which ties them with Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Jets). Of course folks, you can’t forget the 3 Giants wide outs of Victor Cruz, OBJ, and rookie sensation Sterling Shepherd that are hungry and ready to breakout against the Packers’ weakened secondary (CB Sam Shields has been ruled out with a concussion).
 
Pick: Giants