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Giusti: Decision 2018 Red Or Blue It's Up To You

10/18/2018

Bob Giusti

The 2018 midterm elections are coming Tuesday November 6th. Unlike midterms of the past, on a national level this election could change the course of history. For while the President’s term is not up until 2020, the presidency itself is still at stake for this administration. Should a “blue wave” bring the majority of the House of Representatives back to the Democrats, you can bet it will be full speed ahead with the Mueller investigations without any threat of replacing Jeff Sessions or deputy Attourney General Rod Rosenstein. That means more indictments and possibly a recommendation to impeach not only Trump, but newly appointed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavenaugh as well.

But not so fast. Who says this blue wave will actually materialize? Will the 52% women voters unite and go to the polls? Will the recently energized school shooting survivors have succeeded in getting the overwhelming 18-30 majority registered and voting? Will the Latino and Hispanic communities retaliate for this administration’s separation of families at the border? Or will (as in previous midterm elections) the voter turnout be less than 40% and the GOP retains control of not only the Senate (which is expected) but also the House?

The 2018 midterm elections are coming Tuesday November 6th. Unlike midterms of the past, on a national level this election could change the course of history. For while the President’s term is not up until 2020, the presidency itself is still at stake for this administration. Should a “blue wave” bring the majority of the House of Representatives back to the Democrats, you can bet it will be full speed ahead with the Mueller investigations without any threat of replacing Jeff Sessions or deputy Attourney General Rod Rosenstein. That means more indictments and possibly a recommendation to impeach not only Trump, but newly appointed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavenaugh as well.

But not so fast. Who says this blue wave will actually materialize? Will the 52% women voters unite and go to the polls? Will the recently energized school shooting survivors have succeeded in getting the overwhelming 18-30 majority registered and voting? Will the Latino and Hispanic communities retaliate for this administration’s separation of families at the border? Or will (as in previous midterm elections) the voter turnout be less than 40% and the GOP retains control of not only the Senate (which is expected) but also the House?

In Rhode Island the focus is on our gubernatorial race. While Sheldon Whitehouse is a shoe in to keep his Democratic Senate seat (the only national rep running this midterm) the governors of RI have actually been Republicans. 32 verses 21 Democrats to be exact. The early years showed defunct parties such as the Whigs (4 governors) and Independents (4) but since the 50’s it’s been the GOP.

Gina Raimondo is the state’s first woman governor. Should she win a second term, she will become more of a national hero within her party. Remember, that both parties like to nominate governors as presidential candidates and while 2020 may not be in her sights for a presidential run, you can bet she will be an important voice in that year’s DNC convention should she retain her office.

It hasn’t been a love affair for her and her constituents this past term, but her campaign funding is healthy and with Labor strongly supporting her, she shows about a 10 point lead in the current polling.

Then there is Cranston’s Republican Mayor Allan Fung who in his bid for governor in 2015 trailed Raimondo by only 4%. Had it not been for the Moderate Party candidate (the late Robert Healy) getting a solid 21% of the vote, Fung may have seized the day.

Unfortunately Fung and Raimondo also have a wildcard in 2018 in the guise of former state representative Joseph Trillo. Trillo’s Independent candidacy draws Trump’s hardcore base as effectively as Fung will draw independents. While Hillary Clinton took RI in 2016, Trump performed neck and neck with her in Kent County as a whole and also in rural sections like Foster, Chepachet and parts of Bristol County (Warren. Barrington and Bristol). Trillo has been anti immigration since Trump was a Democrat and he speaks to that voter block. It’s possible Trillo could beat Healy’s 21% showing in 2016 if this year’s turnout is as polarizing as the pundits are making us believe.

On election night 990WBOB will have all hands on deck to cover the results. Anchor Scott Rotundo and our election coverage team will keep you up to date and informed on the latest in exit polls and data available both locally and nationally. Pay attention, this one counts more than you think.