Keys to the AFC Championship Game

Original Image from The Boston Globe

Christian Martinelli
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"The New England Patriots, let's face it, they're not good anymore.". Trent Dilfer uttered these simple-minded comments on September 29th, 2014, after the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Patriots in Arrowhead stadium during their week four matchup, 41-14.

Since that game, the New England Patriots have won the AFC East five times, been to five AFC Championships, won three of them, and won two Superbowls.e butt

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Patriots might’ve just proved Dilfer wrong on that scorching hot take.

Here New England comes, just like every other year, waltzing their way into the AFC Championship. This time, they face the 13-4 high powered offense of the Chiefs, in an extremely rare situation where the Pats are the underdog.
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There are many ways each team can win this game on Sunday. Here are three ways each side can punch their ticket to Atlanta:

3 Keys to a Chiefs Victory

1. Batter Brady- This season, the Chiefs had the most combined pressures between Dee Ford, Chris Jones, and Justin Houston out of any trio in the league with 164. They can get pressure up the middle, and from the edges which is a deadly combination, and has been a very overlooked attribute of this Kansas City team. They also lead the league in sacks and strip sacks, which makes them a dangerous group. Brady has struggled when getting consistent pressure in his face, but if he is given time and a clean pocket he will pick apart the Chiefs’ average secondary.                                                                                                                                                                               
2. Read ‘em and Reek- In the first matchup this season, Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill put on a show with seven receptions, 142 yards, and three touchdowns. He served up an all-time ass whooping to the New England secondary. This included a 75 yarder late in the game to tie it up, where Hill used his world class speed to embarrass the Patriots. He left them in his wake. He finished the season with 1,479 yards, 87 catches, and 12 touchdowns as he finished as an All-Pro and Pro Bowler. This is how the Chiefs like to play, using Mahomes’ deadly arm to hit Tyreek deep down field, and letting him do the rest. The Patriots are known for having an extremely slow defense, making Hill a very bad matchup for New England’s secondary. If Hill has another big game the Patriots could be in for a long game watching him scamper into the endzone and throwing up the peace sign✌.                                                                                                    
3. A Kansas City Staycation- Playing the AFC Championship at home is a huge advantage, especially over the past five seasons. The last ten Championship games have been won by the home team, and the Patriots have been on the losing end of two of those games throughout the stretch. Usually the Patriots are a great road team, but this year they have struggled badly away from the Bay State. The Patriots statistics across the board have been down on the road as well, while the Chiefs have been a great home team, with an 8-1 in front of their raucous crowd. These facts favor Kansas City heavily, and home field advantage could be the decider. Once again the blunder of the Miami Miracle could loom large for the Patriots.
   

3 Keys to a Patriots Victory

1. Less is Gilmore- The less you hear a cornerback's name, the more he is doing to shut down the weapons of the opposing team. Stephon Gilmore has arguably been the best corner in the league this season. Gilmore made the All-Pro and Pro Bowl teams this season for his stellar play in the secondary. Every week, whoever he’s on has a virtually silent week, except for when he, along other top notch corners, tried to cover Tyreek Hill. Again it would greatly lean in the Chiefs favor if Hill has a massive game,  and it would be huge for a New England if Gilmore was able to lock Hill down. This is not a task attainable by one man alone, due to the unbelievable speed Hill possesses, but instead Gilmore should follow him all around the field wherever he lines up. They should also bracket Hill with the safety over the top, not allowing him to beat them down the field. The Patriots will be in much better shape if they try and let players of the likes of Chris Conley, Sammy Watkins, and DeMarcus Robinson try to beat them one on one instead. The Patriots did something similar to this when they faced the Vikings earlier this season, and held Pro Bowler Adam Thielen to one of his worst games of the season. If Hill can be subdued, that will greatly hurt the Chiefs gunslinger mentality, and will force them to run the ball much more often. At worst, it will force the ball to their more average pass catchers. Tight end Travis Kelce is also a threat in the receiving game, and will need to be given adequate attention, but Hill is the key. Stop him and the Chiefs begin to look human.              
2. Hot in the Cold- The early forecast for the game is saying that around the 6:30 Eastern kick off the temperature could be anywhere from -5 to 10°. We could be looking at an Ice Bowl II, with the wind chills that have the possibility of getting pretty far down into the negative degrees. Not that this is favorable conditions for either team, but the Patriots are much more used to weather like this, and have the record to show for it. All time in cold playoff games, which is a temperature of 30° or less, the Patriots are 13-2. Yes, they might dominate in arctic conditions even more than they do in perfect conditions. Just last week they beat the LA Chargers in a game where it was 24° at kick off, and they played one of the best halves of Football a team has played all year. The ball is very hard to throw in the bitter cold, and Brady has much more experience doing that than Mahomes, a kid that grew up and played his football in warm Texas all his life. Obviously the weather could change with in the next few days, but if the weather is what they’re predicting the Chiefs better watch out. The Patriots have a lot of history, and experience on their side in these conditions.                                               
3. GOATs Eat Yards- What can I say? Tom Brady has more yards than anyone ever, more wins, more touchdowns, more Super Bowls, and the list goes on and on. I don’t want to belabor the point (stats include playoffs). Brady has more experience than any quarterback or player in the history of the NFL, he’s seen it all and has beaten it all. Even at 41 years old, he is the driving force behind this Patriots team that is now in their eighth consecutive AFC Championship. Throughout his last six playoff games, Brady has a 69% completion percentage, is averaging 388 yards a game, whiling throwing for fourteen touchdowns to only one interception. Unreal. He’s the greatest player of all time, the most clutch player of all time, and the mentally toughest player of all time. He’s the main reason to give the Patriots a chance in this game, because on paper the Chiefs are the much better squad. Belichick, Flores, and McDaniels will put together a game plan, and it will probably be a fantastic one. New England may still be out matched in this game, but Brady still has that greatness in him to will his team to victory. The Patriots will also need big games from James White, Sony Michel, Julian Edelman, and maybe even Gronk, but I promise you Brady will have a big game no matter what. If he doesn’t, the Patriots are utterly screwed, and will get run off the field like they did back in 2014. The Chiefs will score 27 points at the bare minimum, and Brady will have to outdo Mahomes once again. Not many players can do it, but Brady on the biggest stage is not someone who should be counted out.

​Earlier this season, the Patriots and Chiefs put on an insane offensive display in one of the best games of the season when the youngblood was outdueled by the GOAT, and the Patriots pulled it out 43-40 back in week six. As evenly matched as the teams were in that game, I expect this one to be a great sequel to it.
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The Chiefs are favored for a reason in this game. Overall they are probably the better team. They have the MVP on their team in Patrick Mahomes II, probably a candidate for coach of the year in Andy Reid, and some of the best skill position players in the NFL.

All that being said, the Patriots will pull this out in a scrappy, hard-fought game. Brady and Belichick are almost unbeatable, and if the Chiefs can pull it off it will be a great accomplishment.

Unfortunately for Kansas City, I don’t think it’s time for Mahomes to ascend all the way to the top of the Football world just yet. He’s had an amazing season, and will have an astounding career in the future, but this is possibly Brady’s last chance at a ring and he will not be denied.

Not this Sunday.

New England guts this one out in frozen Arrowhead 37-31.

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