New Poll Shows Elorza and Raimondo Leading Races

Two new public opinion surveys by Brown University’s A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions find that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Raimondo, and Providence mayoral candidate Jorge Elorza, also a Democrat, lead their respective opponents by 10 points.

The first poll surveyed a random sample of 1,129 likely registered Rhode Island voters about statewide races, the Providence mayoral race, a statewide ballot measure, the state of the economy, and government approval ratings. This poll was conducted Oct. 14-17, 2014, and has an overall margin of error of 2.9 percent. A second poll surveyed a random sample of 500 likely registered Providence voters about that city’s mayoral race. It was conducted Oct. 21-22, 2014, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The Governor’s race

Raimondo leads the governor’s race with 41.6 percent of likely voters choosing her. Men and women support Raimondo at nearly identical rates. Republican candidate Allan Fung has 30.5 percent of likely voters, and Moderate candidate Robert Healey is at 9.1 percent. However, 18 percent of voters are still undecided about their choice for governor. Likely voters of all ages support Raimondo in greater numbers than Fung with the exception of one age group: Among voters ages 40 to 49, Raimondo and Fung are in a statistical tie. A majority of Democrats (55.4 percent) plan to vote for Raimondo, with a strong majority of Republicans voting for Fung (64 percent). Among voters who identify as Independent, Raimondo (38.6 percent) has a slight edge over Fung (34.1 percent). Among voters with no party affiliation, Fung leads with 36.6 percent and Raimondo has 28.9 percent.

The Providence Mayoral race

In the poll conducted Oct. 14-17, 2014, a sample of 500 likely Providence voters favored Democratic candidate Jorge Elorza (47.6 percent) over Independent candidate Vincent A. Cianci Jr. (37.2 percent). Three percent chose Republican candidate Daniel Harrop and 12.2 percent were undecided. Cianci’s strongest support came from Republicans (67.9 percent), with 17.9 percent of this group choosing Elorza. A majority of Democrats favor Elorza (55.3 percent) with 31.9 percent of this group choosing Cianci. Among likely voters identifying as Independent or unaffiliated, the two frontrunners are in a statistical tie, with both candidates garnering about 40 percent of these groups.

In a follow-up poll conducted Oct. 21-22, 2014, Elorza was found to lead Cianci by a nearly identical margin, with 48.4 percent of voters choosing Elorza and 38 percent choosing Cianci. This margin reflects both likely voters and respondents who indicated that they had already voted (5.6 percent of the sample). Harrop drew 2.8 percent of the vote, and 9.6 percent indicated that they are still undecided with less than two weeks remaining before the November 4, 2014, general election.

“We aren’t worried about this poll at all," said Cianci. "We have a strong ground game in every corner of this city, and our internal polls have us well ahead.  We have hundreds of volunteers out in the field and on the phones every day.  I can feel the energy when I am out there campaigning.  It doesn’t matter what Brown University says on October 23rd.  The only thing that matters is that on November 4th the people of Providence will stand up and vote for the experienced leadership that will put an end to a decade of decline.”

Questions and answers for statewide poll conducted Oct. 14-17, 2014

Results from this poll are based on a telephone survey of a random sample of 1,129 registered likely voters in Rhode Island, including 500 Providence voters. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percent. Note that totals may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

The distribution of voters in the sample by gender was 45.6 percent male and 54.4 percent female. By age, respondents were 18.2 percent ages 18-39; 50.8 percent ages 40-64; 31 percent ages 65 and older. By party affiliation, respondents were 42.3 percent Democrats; 8.9 percent Republicans; 25.7 percent Independents; and 20.8 percent unaffiliated.

Interviews were conducted on landlines and cell phones Oct. 14-17, 2014. Researchers from the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy’s John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory designed the survey instrument and conducted the analysis. The Taubman Center contracted Portable Insights Inc., a Rhode Island-based research firm, to conduct interviews.

1. If the election for governor of Rhode Island were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?   Gina Raimondo 41.6%; Robert Healey 9.1%; Allan Fung 30.5%; Kate Fletcher 0.3%; Leon Kayarian 0.5%; Undecided 18.0%
2. If the election for lieutenant governor of Rhode Island were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?   Daniel McKee 29.3%; William Gilbert 2.4%; Catherine Taylor 20.2%; Tony Jones 1.5%; Undecided 46.6%
3. If the election for secretary of state of Rhode Island were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?   Nellie Gorbea 37.7%; John Carlevale 23.0%; Undecided 39.2%
4. If the election for general treasurer of Rhode Island were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?   Seth Magaziner 47.0%; Ernest A. Almonte 33.1%; Undecided 19.8%
5. A provision in the Rhode Island Constitution created Question 3, which would call a convention to amend or revise the Rhode Island Constitution. How much have you read or heard about Question 3?   A great deal 11.2%; A fair amount 19.8%; Just a little 34.5%; Nothing at all 33.3%; Don’t know 1.2%
6. Each state has its own constitution that is separate from the United States Constitution. Would you vote to approve or reject a convention to amend or revise the Rhode Island Constitution?   Approve 42.3%; Reject 26.8%; Don’t know 30.9%
7. On the whole, would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rhode Island is being governed?   Satisfied 14.9%; Dissatisfied 78.0%; No opinion 7.1%
8. Would you say that Rhode Island government is doing a better job, worse job or about the same as other state governments?   Better job 4.3%; Worse job 61.2%; About the same 28.6%; No opinion 5.9%
9. Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as    Excellent 0.7%; Good 26.4%; Not so good 41.7%; Poor 29.8%; Don’t know 1.4%
10. Would you describe the state of Rhode Island’s economy these days as    Excellent 0.5%; Good 6.8%; Not so good 36.5%; Poor 55.0%; Don’t know 1.2%
11. Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as   Excellent 8.2%; Good 52.1%; Not so good 26.3%; Poor 10.1%; Don’t know 3.4%
12. If the election for mayor of Providence were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?   Jorge O. Elorza 47.6%; Daniel S. Harrop 3.0%; Vincent A. Cianci, Jr. 37.2%; Undecided 12.2%

Questions and answers for Providence mayoral poll conducted Oct. 20-22, 2014

Results from this poll are based on a telephone survey of a random sample of 500 registered voters in Providence. The sample is comprised of registered likely voters and those who already voted. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Note that totals may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

The distribution of voters in the sample by gender were 45.0 percent male and 55.0 percent female. By age, respondents were 24.0 percent ages 18-39; 35.0 percent ages 40-59; 41.0 percent ages 60 and older. By party affiliation, respondents were 63.2 percent Democrats; 5.0 percent Republicans; 28.4 percent Independents; and 0.4 percent unaffiliated/other. Results for the third question represent 28 respondents who had already voted.

Interviews were conducted on landlines and cell phones Oct. 21-22, 2014. Researchers from the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy’s John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory designed the survey instrument and conducted the analysis. The Taubman Center contracted David Binder Research Inc. to conduct interviews.

1. If the election for mayor of Providence were being held today, for whom would you vote?   Jorge O. Elorza 42.6% (with 3.4% leaning toward Elorza); Daniel S. Harrop 2.2% (with 0.4% leaning toward Harrop); Vincent A. Cianci Jr. 31.6% (with 3.6% leaning toward Cianci); Someone else 0.6%; Would abstain 0.4%; Undecided 9.6%
2. How much of a chance is there that you will change your mind and support another candidate?   Strong chance 5%; Slight chance 15%; Just a very small chance 10%; No chance at all 68.3%; Not sure/prefer not to say 1.7%
3. (For respondents who have already voted) In the race for mayor, for whom did you vote?   Jorge O. Elorza 42.9%; Daniel S. Harrop 3.6%; Vincent A. Cianci Jr. 50%; Did not vote 3.6%

---

---

More WBOB Reads

• Cianci Announces Plans To Reform Providence Schools
  
• RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity Demands NAACP, ACLU Retraction
  
• RI Question 4: A Yes Vote on 4 is a Yes Vote for Economic Recovery
  
• RI Treasurer Race: Magaziner Camp Decries Almonte's Lies