WBOB Original Reads

College Football Preview: The PAC-12

7/4/2019

Pat Sullivan

Now that it is July, and we have entered the final month until college football starts, there is no better time to preview the upcoming season than now.

It’s been all Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma the last few seasons, but there are some bright futures on the west coast that might have their say in the College Football Playoff discussion come December.

Today we preview the Pac-12 in part 1 of our Power-5 preview. This conference has been represented only twice in the five years of the playoffs: 2014 with Oregon and 2016 with Washington. Both teams finished 12-1 those seasons, and any of these universities hoping to make it in this year will likely need to finish with one-loss again to even sniff the playoffs.

Before we breakdown the two divisions, it’s worth noting that the Pac-12 teams play one more in-conference game than any other Power-5 conference. For example, Oregon, who is one of the favorites to win the division, will play 9 conference opponents in a row from week 4 until the end of the season.

Now let’s look at Auburn, the team who plays Oregon on opening day. They play 8 SEC games and have the luxury to slide Samford (yes, Samford not Stanford) into week 12, right before they play Alabama. While this may not seem like a big deal, it is, and it’s one of the reasons why the Pac-12 has only had 2 representatives out of the 20 possible CFP spots.

So, let’s get into 2019, where the Pac-12 has some exciting storylines to look forward to. Oregon returns stud quarterback Justin Herbert for his senior season, and they lead the pack for my predictions here in July.

The North Division

Oregon – Justin Herbert could have gone pro, and the way that the NFL draft went, he likely would have been the first passer taken. Instead he stayed in Eugene, and why not, there are plenty of reasons to be excited if you are a Ducks fan. He has a tremendous offensive line coming back with him, as well as running backs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye, who combined for 1,800 yards and 14 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball Troy Dye, a monster linebacker who recorded 115 tackles, passed on the draft and headlines a sneaky good defense. There is a reason why all these players are coming back. Something special is happening at Oregon, and this could be the year they get back in the race. This all could change week one when they play Auburn, but with all of their seniors returning, expect them to be more than ready to make a statement to open the season. Oregon should win 10 games easily and could reach up to 12-wins.
Washington – The Huskies have been the Pac-12 king for the last three years, averaging over 10 wins per season, but this isn’t the same Washington team we are used to. First, they graduated 4-year starter Jake Browning in the Spring, but have a more than adequate replacement in Georgia-transfer Jacob Eason. He should change the look of the offense as he has a much stronger down-field ball than Browning. With three quality receivers returning who accumulated 144 combined catchers last season, expect the ball to be flying all over the turf in Seattle. They did lose Myles Gaskins, a great running back who rushed for 1,345 yards, but Salvon Ahmed will fill in nicely. He took 20% of the handoffs last year but still managed 600 yards and 7 scores. He also averaged more yards per carry than Gaskins. So offensively, they should be just fine, however defensively, they return only 2 starters from a unit that was tops in the conference. Head coach Chris Peterson and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake have always reloaded with quality athletes, but they still have their hands full filling in for linebacker Ben Burr-Kirven and his 176 tackles in 2018, and maybe even a harder time finding a ball-hawking shutdown corner to replace Byron Murphy in the secondary. Oregon gets the edge over Washington because of these questions on the defense, but the Huskies don’t face a legitimate test until week 5 when they host USC. Highlight, star and block off October 19th when they host the Ducks on homecoming weekend. That game should determine the North Division.
Stanford – This was a tough call between the Cardinals and the Cougars, but with Washington State losing Gardner Minshew, and Stanford returning KJ Costello, I give David Shaw and his boys the edge. Coming off a season where he threw for 3,500 yards, Costello returns with more pressure on his shoulders than likely any other Pac-12 quarterback. He won’t have his security blankets in JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Kaden Smith, whom he connected with a combined 100-times. He also won’t have running back Bryce Love. So why then do they get the nod over the 3 teams below them? Their defense was solid last year and should be even better this campaign. They allowed just 22-points per game and have some young talent coming in to a system that has always gotten the most out of their players. They should finish 7-5 this year, but it will be a stressful season for the Cardinals fans, as their first four opponents are Northwestern, USC, UCF and Oregon.
Washington State – Mike Leach guided the Cougars to 11-wins last year, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the upcoming season. They return 4 of their 5 offensive linemen, a solid receiving core, and should have quality production out of halfback Max Borghi. But who will the line protect? Who will pass to the receivers? And who will Borghi play-action with? With Gardner Minshew graduating in the spring, it’s a 3-way quarterback battle in Pullman, Washington, and experience is not on their side. Out of the 478 passes attempted last year, 468 came from the right arm of Minshew. Defensively they should have less questions, as they return some solid talent and will feature junior college transfers Jahad Thomas and Jalen Thompson who will strive under Tracy Claey’s watch. Leach is coming off an 11-win season but may be headed to a 6 or 7-win year.
California – Oh, the Golden Bears. When will they get back to the top of the North Division? It won’t be 2019, but it could be in the near future. Head coach Justin Wilcox took steps last season and should be taking more this year. It won’t be enough to surpass Oregon and Washington, but they are getting closer. Forget the offense for a minute, the defense is what stands out here. Evan Weaver, stud linebacker, returns alongside one of the nation’s top secondaries, for a unit that allowed a conference low 4.5-yards per play. So, we should be ready for an 8 or 9-win season out Cal, right? Wrong. Without a confirmed 1st-string quarterback or a determined starting running back, the offense has more questions than answers. They also play Washington, Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah and Stanford on the road. Cal will take steps in the right direction, but the offense will be so poor that 7-wins is the ceiling. I expect they will more than likely level out at 6.
Oregon State – Woof. Do Beavers say woof? No, but this fanbase will be barking. Oregon State has won just 3 of their last 24 games (Southern Utah, Colorado and Portland State). If you need something to look forward to, running back Jermar Jefferson had a solid freshman season where he scored 12-times and rushed for 1,350 yards. He will get the ball even more this season, but not for good reasons. He will be on the field a lot because the defense is so bad that opposing teams score so quickly. For two years in a row, they allowed over 40-points per game and many of the scores are on long plays. They open up against high-scoring Oklahoma State and then travel to Hawai’i. Expect them to give up 100-points in those games. They do get Cal Poly at home however, so at least they won’t go winless this season, but I’m not sure you can expect much more.

The South Division

Utah – Ah, the Utes! Coming off their first ever division title, there are plenty of reasons to think they should repeat. Not only do they have a lot of quality players returning, including quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zach Moss, they should also feature one of the best defensive unit’s in the country. As an added bonus, they also play the 5 South Division teams below, and should win all of them handedly. They open up with three non-conference games against BYU, Northern Illinois and Idaho State, and will win all 3 by multiple touchdowns. They only have 5 road games, and none of them back-to-back. Their toughest test will be November 2nd at Washington, but the rest should be smooth sailing. They will win 10 games, easily.
USC – And now the rest of the division. The remaining 5 teams will all finish between 4 and 7 wins, and Utah should have a spot in the Pac-12 title game by early November, however if any University can give them a run, it’s USC. Clay Helton’s 2018 season was more roller coaster than Six Flags, starting 4-2, then losing 5 of their last 6. Somehow, they were still in the picture in the division until November. They had quality wins over Washington State and Colorado, but somehow lost to Arizona State, California and UCLA. In their favor this year is play-calling genius Kliff Kingsbury on the head set! Wait, never mind, that didn’t last long, he’s in the NFL. So, they have a completely new play calling staff for quarterback JT Daniels who had some real bright spots last year as a Freshman and now will have one of the top receiving units in the Pac-12. They have one of the best defensive lines on the West Coast and should be improving in the secondary with experience. The schedule isn’t easy, but no one has it easy in the Pac-12. They do get Stanford, Utah, Arizona and Oregon at home in Los Angeles, and I could see a few wins in there. They won’t challenge for the Division, but 7-wins will look nice for the Trojans.
Arizona – Kevin Sumlin and Khalil Tate did not vibe in year 1 together. Not at all. Forget the 5-7 record the team had, how is it possible that this duel threat quarterback dropped statistically in completion percentage, yards per pass, rushing yards and touchdowns? He went from 1,400 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in 2017, to 224 yards and just 2 scores. His yards per rush also dropped 6-yards. That’s insane. He did accumulate 1,000 more yards in the air because he passed the ball 124 more times, but it’s clear that he needs to run the ball to be successful. Sumlin, let this once Heisman-hopeful have more freedom in the offense. They return a 2,000-yard back and the majority of their offensive line, and defensively they have an experienced group of players who are ready for the next step in their progression. It could be fun to watch the Wildcats this year. They have the potential to win 7 games.
UCLA – Chip Kelly’s high tempo offense provided no temp in 2018, starting 0-5 and finishing just 3-9. Their wins were against California, Arizona and USC and lost ugly games to Fresno State and Cincinnati. To take the next step, quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will need to be much better. He split time last year with Wilton Speight and only completed 112 of his 194 passes. 4 offensive linemen return, but they allowed 34 sacks as a group last season and will need to improve dramatically for Thomspon-Robinson to stay upright. They have a solid returning group of defenders returning but a tough schedule featuring out of conference games with Cincinnati (again) and Oklahoma are a tough start to the season before they even get into conference play. They do avoid Oregon and Washington on the schedule which is a sigh of relief for UCLA.
Arizona State – I want the Sun Devils to be better, I really, really do. But even the brightest shooting star can’t bring that wish to fruition. Losing quarterback Manny Wilkins and top receiver N’Keal Harry are the biggest subtractions for any team in the conference this season. With three high-profile recruit quarterbacks coming in, the pressure for Herm Edwards to give one of them the job right away is real. Expect running back Eno Benjamin to have a heavy workload while the quarterback battle settles down. The defense is a typical Edwards’ unit, full of talent and speed, and should cause some havoc in the South Division. Road trips to Utah and Michigan State will be rough, and even though they host Oregon, USC and Arizona, you can pencil those in as losses. Finishing with 6 wins would be a good season for a young, inexperienced team. Sorry, Herm.
Colorado – Ah the Buffalos. They got as high as 19th in the country last season after starting 5-0, and then the landslide started. After losing their next 7 games, head coach Mike MacIntyre was fired, but credit Athletic Director Rick George for quickly replacing him with former Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. He inherits college football’s most exciting player, Laviska Shenault and will have fun installing a new playbook with him. Tucker no doubt was brought in to strengthen a dismal defense who will need to replace 5 of their top 10 tacklers. It is a project here in Bolder, one that will take some time, and having to play Washington, Stanford, Oregon and Washington State this year, expect a rocky start, middle and ending of the season. If they win 5 games, Tucker will be happy.