990WBOB
  • WBOB Radio
  • Crush Cancer
  • Past Casts
  • Weather
  • Contact
  • About
    • WBOB Press Releases
    • Join Our Team!
    • CHARITY GALA

Colley: Three Things We Learned From Nevada

2/26/2020

Comments

 
Picture
Mark Colley

At least it wasn’t a total disaster.

Things could have gone horribly wrong in the Nevada caucuses this year, especially after the total collapse that was Iowa. Fortunately, even with some delayed results, we knew fairly early that Bernie Sanders won by a landslide.

Here’s three things we learned from Nevada.
1) Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee.

The one argument that persisted through Iowa and New Hampshire to detract from Sanders’ strong finishes was his support among voters of color. Given that the first two states are some of the whitest in the nation, the Joe Biden camp publicly believed that as voting turned to more diverse populations, the tables would turn.

But in Nevada, that wasn’t the case.

According to POLITICO, Sanders won 53 percent of the Hispanic vote across the state, and 27 percent of African Americans. It eviscerated the arguments of other camps and, at the same time, proved that Sanders is more than just a factional candidate.

2) Sanders is more than just a factional candidate, but not much more.

Previously, I believed that to be his biggest weakness (aside from age). He had failed to build on his base from 2016, losing much of his vote and never expanding past the Bernie Bros that made him successful. Even in Iowa and New Hampshire, states that should have been powerhouses for a candidate like Sanders, he failed to build bridges.

I thought that would be a problem. I thought that even if he did make it through to the general election, he wouldn’t be able to build the broad support of the Democratic party. But of course, as with so many things, I was wrong. (Although not completely — I’ll explain why.)

Sanders won 40.4 percent of the final vote, showing that he can at least grow his support to include those that are somewhat out of his base. And, as explained before, the base that he won from was diverse, not just racially but also in terms of age (he won every age group besides 65+) and working status (he won 34 percent of union workers).

But on the other hand, the number of 46.8 percent fed to the public is slightly misleading. Yes, it shows that he can win and win big — and the number is almost identical to his winnings in 2016, with a far smaller candidate list — but looking at the initial numbers (34 percent of first alignment and 40 percent in final alignment) does deflate the bubble a bit. And 34 percent doesn’t look much larger than his coalition did at the start of this race.

3) No one is going to drop out.

At this point in the race, you would think we’d be down to just a few candidates. And once again this cycle, the conventional wisdom has been proven wrong.

Even after Sanders obliterated the competition, no one has dropped out. There’s no possibility for a candidate like Tom Steyer or Amy Klobuchar to win the nomination, and yet, they’re hanging on to every last vote they can, even if it means nothing.

At least for some candidates, like Steyer, it makes sense. He has nothing to lose, and he will likely do better in South Carolina; at least it will make him look good. But for someone like Amy Klobuchar, who already has a job as a senator and will likely only embarrass herself with voters of color, it makes no sense.

The only plausible reason for remaining in the race is the possibility of a contested convention. According to FiveThirtyEight, the odds of no candidate winning a majority of pledged delegates sits at 40 percent, with only Sanders having a better chance, at 47 percent. After his success in Nevada, you would expect his chances of winning to be higher.

But in the case of a contested convention, someone like Elizabeth Warren or (less likely) Amy Klobuchar could emerge as the compromise candidate, someone who has largely stayed out of the fray and could rise above it all to take the nomination. Everything is on the table if there’s a contested convention.


In the end, no matter how you look at the data, Nevada was an unquestionable success for Sanders, and a loss for every other candidate.

On to South Carolina.


Read More 990WBOB

  • Rotondo: College Debt Crisis
  • Rhode Island’s Road to 2020 Part I: How RI Can Defeat Bernie Sanders and Save Itself in the Process.
  • College Football Impact: Top 10 2020 Returning Seniors
  • The Democrat’s American Dream - Only $1
Comments

    WBOB
    Original
    ​Reads

    Picture

    Unbiased, Unfiltered. WBOB's Original Reads feature our brightest and boldest personalities, offering their two-cents on the goings on of news, sports, politics, entertainment, and business. -- Are our opinions always PC? Nope. Are they always perfect? Nah. But, are they always 100% authentic? Absolutely!


    LISTEN
    ​TO WBOB ORIGINAL PODCASTS

    Picture
    Listen to
    ​Past BOBCasts

    WBOB 
    Best Reads
    Brought To You By
    TripAdvisor.com

    Picture

    Celebrating David Clyde: A Wild Passionate Friend To All


    Picture

    Search 
    The Archives


    Reads From Our Friends

    Picture

    The Best Game Development Tools: How to Make Your Own Game


    Contact Us
    [email protected]


    Archives

    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012

Search For Your Favorite WBOB Author,
​or BobCast

990WBOB 
An Independent Media Outlet.

The views opinions and thoughts expressed do not  reflect those of 990WBOB, its management or its staff. All Rights Reserved 990WBOB.com 2007-2020
​
Contact WBOB HERE
Photo from nzhamstar
  • WBOB Radio
  • Crush Cancer
  • Past Casts
  • Weather
  • Contact
  • About
    • WBOB Press Releases
    • Join Our Team!
    • CHARITY GALA